伊朗不能再搞君主制【英语学习】

信达

Iran’s Future Must Break From Its Past

伊朗的未来必须摆脱过去

by Shahin Toutounchi

作者：沙欣·图图恩奇

February 03, 2026

No one should be misled by surface calm. Although Iran’s rulers have temporarily forced protests off the streets through mass arrests, executions, and brute repression, the uprising has not ended. It has merely changed. Beneath the silence, the anger and resistance continue to grow. Across generations and social classes, Iranians remain united by a single demand: an end to dictatorship and the creation of a new political order based on popular sovereignty.

表面的平静不应蒙蔽任何人。尽管伊朗统治者通过大规模逮捕、处决和残酷镇压暂时平息了街头抗议，但起义并未结束，只是形式有所改变。在沉默之下，愤怒和反抗仍在不断增长。伊朗人民跨越世代和社会阶层，始终团结在同一个诉求之下：结束独裁统治，建立一个基于人民主权的新政治秩序。

As Iran approaches a decisive moment, the question of what comes next is no longer abstract. After more than four decades of theocratic rule, a young, educated, and politically conscious society is demanding freedom, accountability, and dignity. Yet alongside these aspirations, a misleading narrative has resurfaced — the notion that monarchy, repackaged and rebranded, could offer a solution. Replacing a religious dictatorship with a hereditary system would not represent progress. It would amount to a return to unaccountable rule under a different symbol.

伊朗即将迎来一个关键时刻，未来走向不再是抽象的概念。在经历了四十多年的神权统治之后，一个年轻、受过良好教育且政治意识觉醒的社会正在呼吁自由、问责和尊严。然而，与此同时，一种误导性的论调再次出现——君主制经过重新包装和包装，或许能够提供解决方案。用世袭制度取代宗教独裁并非进步，而只是换了一种象征，让伊朗重回不受问责的统治。

The son of the former Shah has sought to position himself as an alternative through rhetoric and external visibility. But political change in Iran is not driven by nostalgia or media presence abroad. It is forged through organization, sacrifice, and sustained resistance inside the country. Appeals to elements of the regime’s security apparatus do not constitute opposition. They reflect a fundamental misunderstanding of how entrenched authoritarian systems collapse. A figure without an organized presence, network, or operational capacity inside Iran cannot lead a democratic transition. Regime change is not performative. It is structural.

前国王之子试图通过言辞和对外曝光将自己塑造成一种替代者。但伊朗的政治变革并非源于怀旧情绪或海外媒体的影响力，而是通过国内的组织、牺牲和持续抵抗而实现的。向政权安全机构的某些成员寻求支持并不等同于反对，这反映出他们对根深蒂固的威权体制如何崩溃的根本误解。一个在伊朗国内缺乏组织、网络或行动能力的人，无法领导民主转型。政权更迭并非作秀，而是结构性的变革。

伊朗末代国王的儿子礼萨·巴列维周五（2026.1.16）在华盛顿的记者会上称，伊朗军队和安全部队中有许多人已私下向他表示效忠。

Iran does not need a crown. It needs a republic grounded in democratic legitimacy. Monarchism is inherently incompatible with the principles of equality, accountability, and popular sovereignty that have animated Iran’s protest movement. A political system derived from bloodline or anything resembling it, stands in direct contradiction to the demands voiced repeatedly by Iranians risking their lives in the streets. For a nation of more than 90 million citizens, inherited legitimacy is not merely outdated. It is an affront to the very concept of citizenship.

伊朗不需要君主制，它需要的是一个建立在民主合法性基础上的共和国。君主制与伊朗抗议运动所秉持的平等、问责和人民主权原则本质上是水火不容的。任何源于血统或类似血统的政治制度，都与伊朗民众冒着生命危险走上街头所反复提出的诉求背道而驰。对于一个拥有超过9000万公民的国家而言，世袭合法性不仅过时，更是对公民身份概念本身的冒犯。

Inside Iran, the struggle for change has been sustained not by symbolic figures abroad, but by organized resistance. For years and with renewed visibility during the most recent uprising, networks led by the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran and its nationwide Resistance Units have played a central role in confronting the regime’s machinery of repression. Operating under relentless surveillance and extreme risk, these forces have coordinated acts of defiance, preserved continuity of resistance, and demonstrated that the regime’s control is not irreversible. Any serious vision for Iran’s future secular democratic republic must be anchored in this reality. Without an organized force on the ground, regime change remains an illusion.

在伊朗国内，争取变革的斗争并非依靠海外的象征性人物，而是依靠有组织的抵抗力量。多年来，尤其是在最近一次起义中，由伊朗人民圣战者组织及其遍布全国的抵抗力量领导的网络在对抗政权镇压机器方面发挥了核心作用。这些力量在严密的监视和极高的风险下运作，协调反抗行动，保持抵抗的持续性，并证明政权的控制并非不可逆转。任何关于伊朗未来世俗民主共和国的严肃愿景都必须立足于这一现实。如果没有一支有组织的地面力量，政权更迭就只能是空想。

Monarchist narratives do more than mislead. They actively serve the interests of the ruling establishment. As documented by the National Council of Resistance of Iran, the regime has long exploited royalist rhetoric to smear all opposition as a return to past tyranny. By promoting a false binary between clerical rule and monarchy, Tehran portrays itself as the lesser evil. This tactic diverts attention from genuine democratic alternatives and fragments opposition efforts at a moment when clarity and unity are essential.

君主主义叙事不仅具有误导性，而且还积极服务于统治集团的利益。正如伊朗全国抵抗委员会所记录的那样，该政权长期以来利用保皇主义言论抹黑所有反对派，将其描绘成暴政的复辟。通过制造神权统治与君主制之间的虚假二元对立，德黑兰将自身塑造成两害相权取其轻的一方。这种策略转移了人们对真正民主替代方案的关注，并在当前需要清晰立场和团结一致的关键时刻瓦解了反对派的努力。

Iran’s future must therefore be defined by a clean break, not only from theocracy but from every form of unaccountable rule. That future is a secular democratic republic, established through free and fair elections and grounded in universal human rights. A transitional government, limited in scope and duration, can guide the country through this passage and transfer power to elected representatives. Legitimacy must be earned at the ballot box, never inherited or imposed.

因此，伊朗的未来必须以彻底摆脱神权统治为标志，不仅要摆脱神权政治，还要摆脱一切形式的不受制约的统治。伊朗的未来是一个世俗的民主共和国，通过自由公正的选举建立，并以普世人权为基础。一个规模和期限都有限的过渡政府可以引导国家完成这一转型，并将权力移交给民选代表。合法性必须通过选举赢得，绝不能继承或强加。

伊朗全国抵抗委员会候任主席

玛丽亚姆·拉贾维

This vision is clearly articulated in the 10-Point Plan presented by Maryam Rajavi, the President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, which outlines a roadmap for a democratic republic based on the separation of religion and state, gender equality, abolition of the death penalty, autonomy for ethnic minorities, and a non-nuclear Iran committed to peaceful coexistence. It offers a practical and credible framework for transition.

这一愿景在伊朗全国抵抗委员会候任主席玛丽亚姆·拉贾维提出的“十点计划”中得到了清晰阐述。该计划概述了建立民主共和国的路线图，其基础是政教分离、性别平等、废除死刑、少数民族自治以及致力于和平共处的无核伊朗。它为过渡提供了一个切实可行的可信框架。

For decades, Iranians have paid a heavy price for demanding the right to choose their leaders. They have faced bullets, prisons, and executions for the most basic democratic freedoms. To betray that struggle by reviving monarchy or anything that resembles it, would compound one historic injustice with another.

几十年来，伊朗人民为争取选举领导人的权利付出了沉重的代价。他们为了最基本的民主自由，曾面临枪林弹雨、牢狱之灾，甚至被处决。如果通过恢复君主制或任何类似君主制的制度来背叛这场斗争，那将是历史不公的又一例证。

The stakes extend far beyond Iran. As a pivotal country in the Middle East, Iran’s trajectory will shape regional stability and global security. The international community must resist the temptation to romanticize nostalgia or embrace false shortcuts. Revolutions that replace one form of autocracy with another do not liberate societies. They merely rearrange the chains. Iran and its people deserve better. The future they seek is not a throne but a secular democratic republic.

事关重大，远不止伊朗国内。作为中东的关键国家，伊朗的走向将影响地区稳定和全球安全。国际社会必须抵制浪漫化的怀旧情绪和盲目追求捷径的诱惑。以一种专制形式取代另一种专制形式的革命并不能解放社会，它们只不过是更换了枷锁。伊朗及其人民理应拥有更好的未来。他们所追求的不是王位，而是一个世俗的民主共和国。