双语轻读/新时代的中国军控、裁军与防扩散(2)

李圣恩

一、国际安全和军控形势复杂严峻

I. Grim Realities: International Security and Arms Control

当今世界，国际战略格局加速调整，国际力量对比朝着更加均衡方向发展，多边主义深入人心，维护世界和平与安全的积极因素上升。同时，全球安全形势复杂严峻，霸权主义、强权政治、单边主义严重冲击战后国际秩序，地缘政治博弈加剧，局部冲突和动荡频发，军备竞赛升温。国际军控、裁军和防扩散的综合性复杂性更加突出，机遇与挑战并存。

In today’s world, the international strategic landscape is evolving at an accelerating pace, the global balance of power is shifting towards greater equilibrium, multilateralism is valued, and factors safeguarding world peace and security are on the rise. At the same time, the global security situation is complicated and menacing: Hegemonism, power politics, and unilateralism pose a severe threat to the post-war international order; geopolitical rivalry is intensifying; regional conflicts and unrest are becoming more frequent; and the arms race is escalating. Concurrently, issues related to international arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation are becoming more complex and multidimensional. Overall, the situation presents both opportunities and challenges.

大国竞争冲击地区和平与安全。个别国家谋求绝对战略优势，持续扩军备战，挑动阵营对抗，加剧国际和地区军备竞赛，导致地区冲突多点爆发，全球军费开支屡创新高。特别是在亚太地区，强化军事同盟，推动“延伸威慑”，前沿部署陆基中程导弹，制造紧张对立，严重损害地区国家安全利益。

Competition between major countries is impacting regional peace and security. A certain country seeks absolute strategic superiority by constantly expanding its armaments, strengthening combat readiness, and provoking bloc confrontation. This has led to escalated international and regional arms race, outbreaks of regional conflicts at multiple spots, and repeated new highs in global military expenditures. In particular, this country has strengthened military alliances in the Asia-Pacific region, exercised extended deterrence, and forward-deployed ground-based intermediate-range missiles, provoking tension and opposition and severely undermining the security and interests of countries in the region.

全球战略稳定面临严重威胁。个别国家持续调整核政策，顽固维持庞大核武库，提升核威慑和实战能力，加剧全球核冲突风险。导弹防御技术不断提升，外空、网络、人工智能等新兴领域军事应用快速发展，正在改变传统战略攻防格局，给全球战略稳定带来新冲击。

Global strategic stability faces severe threats. This certain country keeps adjusting its nuclear policies, stubbornly maintaining a massive nuclear weapons stockpile while further reinforcing its nuclear deterrence and war-fighting capabilities. This has resulted in rising risks of global nuclear conflicts. Meanwhile, missile defense technologies are advancing rapidly, and military applications in emerging fields such as outer space, cyberspace, and AI are developing at a fast pace. All these factors are reshaping the traditional strategic offense-defense dynamic, posing new challenges to global strategic stability.

国际军控、裁军和防扩散体系受到侵蚀。个别国家退群毁约，破坏国际军控体系。国际防扩散机制深受实用主义和双重标准危害，少数国家构筑“小院高墙”、大搞“脱钩断链”，以防扩散为名限制发展中国家和平利用科技权利。

The international arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation regimes are eroding. This certain country has undermined the international arms control regime by withdrawing from relevant international agreements. The international nonproliferation regime has suffered from pragmatism and double standards. A handful of countries, driven by a “small yard with high fences” mentality, pursue decoupling, sever industrial and supply chains, and restrict developing countries’ peaceful use of science and technology in the name of nonproliferation.

新兴领域安全风险与挑战日益突出。随着新兴科技快速发展应用，技术失控、数据窃密、科技犯罪、伦理失范等风险上升，国际规则缺失和治理体系滞后问题凸显。新兴领域军事化进程加快，冲击传统交战法则和战争伦理，带来新的全球性安全挑战。

Security risks and challenges in emerging fields are becoming more prominent. With the rapid development of emerging technologies, uncontrolled use of technologies, data theft, technological crimes, and violation of ethics are on the rise. These issues highlight the absence of international rules and the lag in governance systems. The militarization trend in emerging fields is accelerating. This is destabilizing traditional principles of warfare and war ethics and posing new challenges to global security.

加强军备控制的和平正义呼声高涨。全球南方国家在国际安全与发展事务中的自主性上升，推动构建公平、公正、合理的国际军控体系，维护世界和平稳定的力量不断壮大。中国坚定维护以联合国为核心的国际军控体系，积极推动完善全球安全治理，是推进国际军控进程的重要力量。

Rising calls for stronger arms control are in essence calls for peace and justice. The Global South is achieving greater autonomy in addressing global security and development affairs. The drive to promote a fair, just and reasonable international arms control regime and to safeguard world peace and stability is growing stronger. China is committed to upholding the international arms control regime with the UN at its core. It actively promotes sound global security governance and serves as a key promoter of international arms control.

grim /ɡrɪm/ CET6 TEM4

(grimmer, grimmest)

1 ADJ A situation or piece of information that is grim is unpleasant, depressing, and difficult to accept. 严酷的; 令人沮丧的

They painted a grim picture of growing crime.

他们描绘了一个犯罪增长的严酷局面。

There was further grim economic news yesterday.

昨天有更令人沮丧的经济新闻。

2 ADJ A place that is grim is unattractive and depressing in appearance. (地方) 阴沉的

The city might be grim at first, but there is a vibrancy and excitement.

这个城市也许一开始沉闷，但它有一种活力和激情。

equilibrium /ˌiːkwɪˈlɪbrɪəm/ TEM8

1 N-VAR Equilibrium is a balance between several different influences or aspects of a situation. 平衡

Stocks seesawed ever lower until prices found some new level of equilibrium.

股票进一步震荡下跌，直到找到某个新的平衡。

2 N-UNCOUNT Someone's equilibrium is their normal calm state of mind. 平静

I paused in the hall to take three deep breaths to restore my equilibrium.

我在那个大厅停下，深吸了3口气以恢复平静。

3 N-UNCOUNT the condition of a system that has its total energy distributed among its component parts in the statistically most probable manner 能量均分

menacing /ˈmɛnɪsɪŋ/

ADJ If someone or something looks menacing, they give you a feeling that they are likely to cause you harm or put you in danger. 威胁的

The strong, dark eyebrows give his face an oddly menacing look.

两道又浓又黑的眉毛给他的脸一种异常吓人的神情。

unilateralism /ˌjuːnɪˈlætərəlɪzəm/

1 N-UNCOUNT Unilateralism is the belief that one country should get rid of all its own nuclear weapons, without waiting for other countries to do the same. 片面限制核武器论

2 N-UNCOUNT Unilateralism is used to refer to a policy in which one country or group involved in a situation takes a decision or action on its own, without the agreement of the other countries or groups involved. 单边主义

...the recent history of American aggressive unilateralism on trade.

...美国侵略性的贸易单边主义的近代历史。

rivalry /ˈraɪvəlrɪ/ CET6 TEM4

1 N-VAR Rivalry is competition or fighting between people, businesses, or organizations who are in the same area or want the same things. 竞争; 斗争

The rivalry between the Inkatha and the ANC has resulted in violence in the black townships.

英卡塔自由党与非洲国民大会之间的斗争导致了黑人城镇之间的暴力冲突。

escalate /ˈɛskəˌleɪt/ CET6+ TEM8

(escalating, escalated, escalates)

1 V-T/V-I If a bad situation escalates or if someone or something escalates it, it becomes greater in size, seriousness, or intensity. 使…加剧; 加剧

Both unions and management fear the dispute could escalate.

各工会与资方都害怕争端会加剧。

The protests escalated into five days of rioting.

抗议逐渐升级为5天的暴乱。

2 N-VAR 加剧

The threat of nuclear escalation remains.

核升级的威胁依然存在。

escalation

expenditure /ɪkˈspɛndɪtʃə/ CET6 TEM4

N-VAR Expenditure is the spending of money on something, or the money that is spent on something. 花销; 支出

Policies of tax reduction must lead to reduced public expenditure.

减税政策必然导致公共开支减少。

deterrence /dɪˈtɛrəns/

1N-UNCOUNT Deterrence is the prevention of something, especially war or crime, by having something such as weapons or punishment to use as a threat. 威慑

...policies of nuclear deterrence.

…核威慑政策。

stockpile /ˈstɒkˌpaɪl/ CET6+

(stockpiling, stockpiled, stockpiles)

1 V-T If people stockpile things such as food or weapons, they store large quantities of them for future use. 大量储备

People are stockpiling food for the coming winter.

人们正在为即将到来的冬天大量储备食物。

2 N-COUNT A stockpile of things is a large quantity of them that have been stored for future use. 储备物资

The two leaders also approved treaties to cut stockpiles of chemical weapons.

两位领导人也都赞同削减化学武器储备的条约。

dynamics /daɪˈnæmɪks/ TEM8

1 N the branch of mechanics concerned with the forces that change or produce the motions of bodies 动力学 →

Synonyms：statics , kinematics

regime /reɪˈʒiːm, reɪ-/ CET6 TEM4

N-COUNT If you refer to a government or system of running a country as a regime, you are critical of it because you think it is not democratic and uses unacceptable methods. 统治表不满

...the collapse of the Fascist regime at the end of the war.

…战争结束时法西斯统治的崩溃。

pragmatism /ˈpræɡməˌtɪzəm/

1 N-UNCOUNT Pragmatism means thinking of or dealing with problems in a practical way, rather than by using theory or abstract principles. 实用主义

She had a reputation for clear thinking and pragmatism.

她因思维清晰和实用主义而闻名。

2 N-COUNT 实用主义者

He is a political pragmatist, not an idealist.

他是个政治上的实用主义者，而不是个理想主义者。

pragmatist

mentality /mɛnˈtælɪtɪ/ CET6+ TEM4

N-COUNT Your mentality is your attitudes and your way of thinking. 心态

...a criminal mentality.

…一种犯罪心态。

decoupling /diːˈkʌplɪŋ/

N the separation of previously linked systems so that they may operate independently 关联系统分离

sever /ˈsɛvə/ TEM4

(severing, severed, severs)

1 V-T To sever something means to cut completely through it or to cut it completely off. 切断; 切掉

Richardson severed his right foot in a motorcycle accident.

理查森在一次摩托车事故中轧断了右脚。

2 V-T If you sever a relationship or connection that you have with someone, you end it suddenly and completely. 断绝 (关系、联系)

She severed her ties with her homeland.

她断绝了与自己祖国的联系。

prominent /ˈprɒmɪnənt/ CET4 TEM4

1 ADJ Someone who is prominent is important and well-known. 重要的; 著名的

...the children of very prominent or successful parents.

…非常知名或成功的人士们的孩子们。

2 ADJ Something that is prominent is very noticeable or is an important part of something else. 突出的

Here the window plays a prominent part in the design.

这里，窗户在设计中有着突出的作用。