From Kaifeng to New York, glory is as ephemeral as smoke and clouds（从开封到纽约——辉煌如过眼云烟）

散落一地的回忆

英文原文

From Kaifeng to New York, glory is as ephemeral as smoke and clouds

As this millennium dawns, New York City is the most important city in the world, the unofficial capital of planet Earth. But before we New Yorkers become too full of ourselves, it might be worthwhile to glance at dilapidated Kaifeng in central China.

Kaifeng, an ancient city along the mud-clogged Yellow River, was by far the most important place in the world in 1000. And if you've never heard of it, that's a useful warning for Americans—as the Chinese headline above puts it, in a language of the future that many more Americans should start learning, "Glory is as ephemeral as smoke and clouds."

As the world's only superpower, America may look today as if global domination is an entitlement. But if you look back at the sweep of history, it's striking how fleeting supremacy is, particularly for individual cities.

My vote for most important city in the world in the period leading up to 2000 B.C. would be Ur, Iraq. In 1500 B.C., perhaps Thebes, Egypt. There was no dominant player in 1000 B.C., though one could make a case for Sidon, Lebanon. In 500 B.C., it would be Persepolis, Persia; in the year 1, Rome; around A.D. 500, maybe Chang'an, China; in 1000, Kaifeng, China; in 1500, probably Florence, Italy; in 2000, New York City; and in 2500, probably none of the above.

Today Kaifeng is grimy and poor, not even the provincial capital and so minor it lacks even an airport. Its sad state only underscores how fortunes change. In the 11th century, when it was the capital of Song Dynasty China, its population was more than one million. In contrast, London's population then was about 15,000.

An ancient 17-foot painted scroll, now in the Palace Museum in Beijing, shows the bustle and prosperity of ancient Kaifeng. Hundreds of pedestrians jostle each other on the streets, camels carry merchandise in from the Silk Road, and teahouses and restaurants do a thriving business.

Kaifeng's stature attracted people from all over the world, including hundreds of Jews. Even today, there are some people in Kaifeng who look like other Chinese but who consider themselves Jewish and do not eat pork.

As I roamed the Kaifeng area, asking local people why such an international center had sunk so low, I encountered plenty of envy of New York. One man said he was arranging to be smuggled into the U.S. illegally, by paying a gang $25,000. But many local people insisted that China is on course to bounce back and recover its historic role as world leader.

"China is booming now," said Wang Ruina, a young peasant woman on the outskirts of town. "Give us a few decades and we'll catch up with the U.S., even pass it."

She's right. The U.S. has had the biggest economy in the world for more than a century, but most projections show that China will surpass us in about 15 years, as measured by purchasing power parity.

So what can New York learn from a city like Kaifeng?

One lesson is the importance of sustaining a technological edge and sound economic policies. Ancient China flourished partly because of pro-growth, pro-trade policies and technological innovations like curved iron plows, printing and paper money. But then China came to scorn trade and commerce, and per capita income stagnated for 600 years.

A second lesson is the danger of hubris, for China concluded it had nothing to learn from the rest of the world—and that was the beginning of the end.

I worry about the U.S. in both regards. Our economic management is so lax that we can't confront farm subsidies or long-term budget deficits. Our technology is strong, but American public schools are second-rate in math and science. And Americans' lack of interest in the world contrasts with the restlessness, drive and determination that are again pushing China to the forefront.

Beside the Yellow River I met a 70-year-old peasant named Hao Wang, who had never gone to a day of school. He couldn't even write his name—and yet his progeny were different. "

Two of my grandsons are now in university," he boasted, and then he started talking about the computer in his home.

Thinking of Kaifeng should stimulate us to struggle to improve our high-tech edge, educational strengths and pro-growth policies. For if we rest on our laurels, even a city as great as New York may end up as Kaifeng-on-the-Hudson.

中文译文

从开封到纽约——辉煌如过眼云烟

千禧年伊始，纽约成为全球最重要的城市，堪称地球的“非官方首都”。但在纽约人自满之前，或许值得看看中国中部破败的开封。

开封，这座坐落于泥沙淤积的黄河之畔的古城，在公元1000年时是无可争议的世界中心。若你从未听闻它的名字，这对美国人而言不啻为一记警钟——正如本文标题所言：“辉煌如过眼云烟”。

作为世界唯一的超级大国，美国如今或许觉得全球主导地位是理所当然。但纵观历史，霸权的转瞬即逝令人瞩目，尤其是对单个城市而言。

我认为公元前2000年前后的世界第一城是伊拉克的乌尔；公元前1500年可能是埃及的底比斯；公元前1000年没有绝对霸主，但黎巴嫩的西顿可算候选；公元前500年是波斯的波斯波利斯；公元1年是罗马；公元500年左右或许是中国的长安；公元1000年是中国的开封；公元1500年大概率是意大利的佛罗伦萨；公元2000年是纽约；而到公元2500年，上述城市可能都已不在其列。

如今的开封肮脏贫穷，连省会都不是，地位卑微到甚至没有机场。它的衰败更凸显了时运的变迁。11世纪，作为中国北宋的都城，开封人口超百万，而当时伦敦的人口仅约1.5万。

北京故宫博物院珍藏着一幅17英尺长的古画卷，生动展现了古代开封的繁华喧嚣：街上行人摩肩接踵，骆驼驮着丝绸之路的商品往来不息，茶馆酒楼生意兴隆。

开封的地位曾吸引着世界各地的人们，包括数百名犹太人。即便如今，开封仍有一些外貌与普通中国人无异、却自认犹太人且忌食猪肉的居民。

我在开封一带走访时，询问当地人为何这座国际中心会衰落至此，不少人流露出对纽约的羡慕。有位男士说，他正打算花2.5万美元请黑帮帮忙，非法偷渡到美国。但更多当地人坚信，中国正踏上复兴之路，终将重拾世界领导者的历史地位。

“中国现在发展得越来越好，”城郊年轻农妇王瑞娜（音译）说，“再给我们几十年，就能赶上美国，甚至超过它。”

她所言非虚。美国占据全球最大经济体的地位已逾一个世纪，但多数预测显示，按购买力平价计算，中国将在约15年内超越美国。

那么，纽约能从开封这样的城市中学到什么？

其一，保持技术优势和稳健经济政策至关重要。古代中国的繁荣，部分源于支持增长、促进贸易的政策，以及曲辕犁、印刷术、纸币等技术革新。但后来中国轻视商贸，人均收入陷入了600年的停滞。

其二，傲慢自大是致命隐患。中国曾认为无需向他国学习——而这正是衰败的开端。

这两点都让我为美国感到担忧。我们的经济管理松散，无力解决农业补贴或长期预算赤字问题；技术虽强，但美国公立学校的数学和科学教育仅处于二流水平；美国人对世界缺乏兴趣，反观中国，那份躁动、干劲与决心正再次将其推向世界前沿。

在黄河边，我遇到了70岁的农民王浩（音译），他从未上过一天学，甚至不会写自己的名字——但他的后代已然不同。“我的两个孙子现在都上了大学，”他自豪地说，接着聊起了家里的电脑。

想到开封，我们应奋发图强，提升高科技优势、教育实力和促增长政策。因为若我们固步自封、安于现状，即便如纽约这般伟大的城市，最终也可能沦为“哈得孙河畔的开封”。