Weekly Commentary 一周财经回顾 (2025/05/02）

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Weekly commentary

For the week ended May 2

Global equity markets advanced as optimism grew around possible U.S.-China trade talks and political clarity in Canada. Prime Minister Mark Carney is unlikely to have much time to celebrate the narrow election win as trade strategy and diversification will be an immediate key . Canadian and U.S. bond yields rose, while equity gains were led by tech stocks. Oil and gold prices moved lower. Markets now turn to next week’s U.S. Federal Reserve Board (“Fed”) meeting and the decision to cut or hold rates in an environment of slowing economic activity. China and the U.S. have indicated openness to trade discussions, a potentially positive sign for negotiations between the world’s two largest economies.

Carney elected and White House visit confirmed

• The Liberal Party celebrated victory in the Canadian federal election but fell short of the 172 seats needed to form a majority government.
• Freshly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will soon meet U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs and trade policy at the White House. Although the Prime Minister’s visit could signal a turning point in Canada-U.S. trade dynamics, Carney has suggested that the prior relationship with the U.S. is over.
• The Canadian dollar rose to a six-month high against the U.S. dollar, posting its strongest monthly gain in a decade.
• While the currency gained, Canadian energy stocks lagged as weak demand and rising inventories pushed oil prices lower. Statistics Canada reported gross domestic product (“GDP”) fell 0.2% in February, led by goods-producing sectors. Growth for the first quarter of 2025 is estimated at 1.5%.
• The Bank of Canada’s meeting minutes showed policymakers debated a rate cut in April but paused due to trade-related risks and economic uncertainty.

Tariff rollback offers partial relief for auto sector

• President Trump scaled back parts of the 25% auto tariff following pressure from automakers and international trading partners. While the rollback offers relief, key levies remain in place, leaving Canadian manufacturers exposed to disruption.
• Full tariff removal would likely be welcomed to protect the automotive industry and restore supply chain stability.
• The North American auto sector remains vulnerable since so many parts move back and forth across the border.
• Industry leaders warn that unpredictable trade policy could weigh on investment decisions.
• Recent auto production data shows a slowdown, suggesting tariff uncertainty is already influencing operations. Companies are evaluating investment plans based on limited policy clarity and fluctuating consumer demand.

U.S. economy contracts as sentiment weakens

• U.S. GDP declined by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the country’s first economic contraction in three years. Trade-related uncertainty and weaker cross-border flows impeded business activity and household confidence.
• Manufacturing slowed, but the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell less than expected, and consumer spending softened amid inflation pressures and geopolitical concerns.
• With economic momentum weakening, markets increasingly anticipate a near-term rate cut from the Fed.
• All eyes are on next week’s Fed meeting, where policymakers are expected to weigh growth concerns against inflation risks.
• Fed officials have acknowledged a growing divergence between weakening growth and still-elevated inflation, complicating their next move.

Europe’s modest growth faces new disruptions

• The euro-area economy grew 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025, beating expectations, with France, Germany and Italy all contributing modest gains.
• Forward-looking indicators point to slowing growth in the second quarter as U.S. tariffs begin to weigh on export demand and sentiment.
• The European Central Bank has cut interest rates seven consecutive times, lowering its benchmark rate to 2.40% to support activity. European trade ministers remain concerned that persistent U.S. tariffs could derail the region’s fragile recovery.
• The growth data reflects the economic environment before tariffs had a chance to make an impact, so this shock still needs to be absorbed.
• Another potential complication that could have been worse was a power outage across Spain and Portugal. The blackout disrupted or stopped transport and public services for hours. Authorities are monitoring the incident, assessing the economic impact and infrastructure resilience.

全球股市上涨，原因是围绕美中贸易谈判的乐观情绪和加拿大政治局势的明朗化。加拿大总理马克·卡尼可能没有太多时间来庆祝这场微弱的选举胜利，因为贸易战略和多元化将成为当务之急。加拿大和美国的债券收益率上升，股市上涨则由科技股领涨。与此同时，石油和黄金价格下跌。市场的关注点转向下周的美国联邦储备委员会（“美联储”）会议，以及在经济活动放缓的环境下，是否降息或维持利率不变的决定。中美双方都表示愿意就贸易问题展开讨论，这对全球两大经济体之间的谈判来说，是一个潜在的积极信号。

卡尼当选并确认访问白宫

• 自由党在加拿大联邦大选中获胜，但未能获得组建多数政府所需的172个席位。
• 新当选的加拿大总理马克·卡尼即将在白宫会见美国总统唐纳德·特朗普，讨论关税和贸易政策。尽管总理的访问可能标志着加拿大与美国贸易关系的转折点，但卡尼暗示，加拿大与美国先前的关系已经结束。
• 加元兑美元升至六个月高点，创下十年来最强劲月度涨幅。
• 尽管货币上涨，但由于需求疲软和库存增加导致油价下跌，加拿大能源股表现落后。加拿大统计局报告称，2 月份国内生产总值（“GDP”）下降 0.2%，其中商品生产行业表现最为糟糕。预计2025年第一季度的增长率为1.5%。
• 加拿大央行会议纪要显示，政策制定者在 4 月份讨论了降息，但由于贸易相关风险和经济不确定性而暂停

关税下调为汽车行业带来部分缓解

• 在汽车制造商和国际贸易伙伴的压力下，特朗普总统削减了部分25%的汽车关税。虽然削减关税措施可以缓解压力，但关键杠杆仍然存在，这导致加拿大制造商面临中断的风险。
• 全面取消关税可能会受到欢迎，以保护汽车行业并恢复供应链稳定。
• 由于大量零部件跨境运输，北美汽车行业依然脆弱。
• 行业领袖警告称，不可预测的贸易政策可能会影响投资决策。
• 最近的汽车生产数据显示增长放缓，表明关税不确定性已经对运营产生影响。公司正在根据有限的政策透明度和波动的消费者需求来评估投资计划。

市场情绪低迷，美国经济萎缩

• 2025年第一季度，美国GDP下降0.3%，这是美国三年来首次经济萎缩。贸易相关的不确定性和跨境流动减弱阻碍了商业活动和家庭信心。
• 制造业放缓，但ISM制造业采购经理人指数降幅小于预期，通胀压力和地缘政治担忧导致消费者支出疲软。
• 随着经济增长势头减弱，市场越来越预期美联储近期将降息。
• 所有人的目光都集中在下周的美联储会议上，预计政策制定者将在会上权衡增长担忧与通胀风险。
• 美联储官员承认，经济增长放缓与通胀仍然高企之间的差距正在扩大，这给他们下一步行动带来了复杂性

欧洲温和增长面临新的干扰

• 2025年第一季度欧元区经济增长0.4%，超出预期，其中法国、德国和意大利均贡献了小幅增长。
• 由于美国关税开始对出口需求和情绪造成压力，前瞻性指标表明第二季度经济增长将放缓。
• 欧洲央行已连续七次降息，将基准利率降至2.40%，以支持经济活动。欧洲贸易部长仍然担心美国持续征收的关税可能会破坏该地区脆弱的复苏。
• 增长数据反映的是关税产生影响之前的经济环境，因此这种冲击仍需吸收。
• 另一个可能造成更严重后果的潜在并发症是西班牙和葡萄牙的停电。停电导致交通和公共服务中断或停止数小时。当局正在监测该事件，评估其经济影响和基础设施恢复能力。

Disclaimer

This commentary represents Canada Life Investment Management Ltd.’s views at the date of publication, which are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, there can be no assurance that any trends described in this material will continue or that forecasts will occur; economic and market conditions change frequently. This commentary is intended as a general source of information and is not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell specific investments, nor tax or legal advice. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should carefully review the relevant offering documents and seek input from their advisor. You may not reproduce, distribute, or otherwise use any of this article without the prior written consent of Canada Life Investment Management Ltd. Privacy, legal, copyright and trademark information.

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