Weekly Commentary 一周财经回顾 (2025/04/25)

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Weekly commentary

For the week ended April 25

Global equity markets moved higher over the week ended April 25. Sentiment was boosted on signs the U.S. administration may be willing to work with China to get a trade deal in place. Meanwhile, there are growing expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve Board could cut rates at its next meeting. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index advanced, led by the Information Technology sector. U.S. equities also increased. Yields on 10-year government bonds in Canada and the U.S. declined. Gold and oil prices fell over the week.

Canadian retail sales post another decline

• Retail sales in Canada dropped by 0.4% in February, adding to the 0.6% decline in January, suggesting uncertain economic conditions may be weighing on Canadians.
• Driving February’s decline was a drop in sales at automotive and parts dealers.
• Statistics Canada estimated that retail sales rose by 0.7% in March.
• March’s increase comes amid falling confidence as trade tensions with the U.S. escalate, which could put downward pressure on Canada’s economic conditions.
• Looking ahead, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business expects sales to decline over the second quarter. Trade uncertainty and weaker economic conditions could stunt consumer demand. The Bank of Canada may need to lower interest rates again to help spur consumer and business spending.

U.S. business activity slows

• In April, business activity in the U.S. grew at its slowest pace since 2023 as the uncertainty of trade tensions weighed on demand.
• A flash estimate of the S&P Global U.S. Composite Purchasing Managers Index fell to 51.2 in April from 53.5 in the previous month, missing economists’ expectations.
• The biggest detractor was found in the services sector, which slowed considerably in April. Manufacturing activity grew at a soft pace. Both sectors were hindered by relatively modest demand in response to trade and economic uncertainty.
• The U.S. real estate market also showed some signs of weakening. Sales of existing homes dropped by 5.9% in March, the largest one-month decline since November 2022.
• Changes in trade policy are weighing on consumer and business confidence, which is affecting spending in different areas of the U.S. economy. Economic conditions could weaken if trade tensions persist.

People’s Bank of China holds steady

• At its April fixing, the People’s Bank of China (“PBOC”) held its one- and five-year loan prime rates (“LPR”) steady at 3.10% and 3.60%, respectively.
• The LPRs remain at their lowest levels on record as the PBOC looks to support China’s economy, particularly domestic demand and real estate market activity.
• China’s economy grew by 5.4% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, which matched the pace of growth in the fourth quarter of 2024.
• The PBOC noted it is closely monitoring the impact of U.S. tariffs on China’s economy and is willing to adjust policy further if needed.
• U.S.-China trade tensions persisted over the week. However, reports showed China might be willing to lower some tariffs, in a move matching what the U.S. did earlier this month. Trade talks between the two are still uncertain.

International Monetary Fund downgrades its growth projection

• The International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) lowered its projection for global economic growth this year from 3.3% to 2.8% in its most recent World Economic Outlook.
• The IMF believes changing trade policy could weigh on global economic activity this year. The IMF believes the persistence of tariffs could usher in a period of slower global economic growth.
• The IMF downgraded its projection of growth for the U.S. and China, which have implemented high tariffs on one another, although both countries appear to be scaling some of those back.
• The economic organization expects Canada’s economy to expand by 1.4% this year, little changed from last year. However, tariffs could have a significant impact on Canada’s economy.
• IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva said countries should act quickly to halt trade disruptions with the U.S. The uncertainty about tariffs and their potential impact on global economic conditions are weighing on consumer and business spending.

截至 4 月 25 日当周，全球股市走高。有迹象表明美国政府可能愿意与中国合作达成贸易协议，市场情绪受到提振。与此同时，人们越来越预期美联储委员会可能在下次会议上降息。在加拿大，标准普尔/多伦多证券交易所综合指数上涨，由信息技术板块领涨。美国股市也上涨。加拿大和美国10年期政府债券收益率下降。本周黄金和石油价格下跌。

加拿大零售额再次下滑

• 加拿大2月份零售额下降0.4%，1月份零售额下降0.6%，这表明不确定的经济状况可能给加拿大人带来压力。
• 2 月份销量下滑的原因是汽车和零部件经销商的销售额下降。
• 加拿大统计局估计3月份零售额增长0.7%。
• 3 月份信心指数上涨的背景下，由于与美国的贸易紧张局势升级，加拿大的信心可能受到下行压力。
• 展望未来，加拿大独立企业联合会预计第二季度销售额将下降。贸易不确定性和经济状况疲软可能会抑制消费者需求。加拿大央行可能需要再次降低利率，以刺激消费者和企业支出。

美国商业活动放缓

• 4月份，由于贸易紧张局势的不确定性影响需求，美国商业活动增速降至2023年以来的最低水平。
• 4月份标准普尔全球美国综合采购经理人指数初值从上月的53.5降至51.2，不及经济学家的预期。
• 最大的拖累因素是服务业，4 月份该行业增长大幅放缓。制造业活动增长缓慢。由于贸易和经济不确定性，这两个行业的需求相对温和，从而受到阻碍。
• 美国房地产市场也出现一些疲软迹象。 3月份现房销售下降5.9%，为2022年11月以来最大单月降幅。
• 贸易政策的变化正在影响消费者和企业信心，进而影响美国经济不同领域的支出。如果贸易紧张局势持续下去，经济状况可能会恶化。

中国人民银行维持利率稳定

• 中国人民银行（“央行”）4 月份定盘价中，一年期和五年期贷款市场报价利率（“LPR”）分别维持在 3.10% 和 3.60%。
• 由于中国人民银行希望支持中国经济，特别是国内需求和房地产市场活动，LPR 仍处于历史最低水平。
• 2025年第一季度中国经济同比增长5.4%，与2024年第四季度的增长速度持平。
• 中国人民银行指出，正密切关注美国关税对中国经济的影响，并愿意在必要时进一步调整政策。
• 本周中美贸易紧张局势持续存在。然而，有报道称中国可能愿意降低部分关税，此举与美国本月早些时候的做法一致。两国之间的贸易谈判仍存在不确定性。

国际货币基金组织下调经济增长预测

• 国际货币基金组织（IMF）在最新一期《世界经济展望》中将今年全球经济增长预测从3.3%下调至2.8%。
• 国际货币基金组织认为，贸易政策的变化可能会对今年的全球经济活动造成压力。国际货币基金组织认为，关税持续存在可能导致全球经济增长放缓。
• 国际货币基金组织下调了对美国和中国经济增长的预测，这两个国家都对彼此征收了高额关税，尽管两国似乎都在削减部分关税。
• 该经济组织预计今年加拿大经济将增长1.4%，与去年相比变化不大。然而，关税可能会对加拿大经济产生重大影响。
• 国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃表示，各国应迅速采取行动，阻止与美国的贸易中断。关税的不确定性及其对全球经济状况的潜在影响正在给消费者和企业支出带来压力。

Disclaimer

This commentary represents Canada Life Investment Management Ltd.’s views at the date of publication, which are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, there can be no assurance that any trends described in this material will continue or that forecasts will occur; economic and market conditions change frequently. This commentary is intended as a general source of information and is not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell specific investments, nor tax or legal advice. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should carefully review the relevant offering documents and seek input from their advisor. You may not reproduce, distribute, or otherwise use any of this article without the prior written consent of Canada Life Investment Management Ltd. Privacy, legal, copyright and trademark information.

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